Where AI models meet crypto, forex and global markets, tested in the open.
Certius Lab is a community of researchers, quants and builders. We publish reproducible research on AI-driven finance across crypto, forex, stocks and commodities, and we work on problems people face in live markets.
Join the labSee open problemsMarkets we study
Crypto is where we started. The same AI and risk methods apply across every liquid market, and we also study how they affect each other.
Crypto
Bitcoin, Ethereum, altcoins, DeFi and on-chain data.
Forex
Major and minor pairs, carry trades, central bank decisions and news-driven volatility.
Stocks and indices
Equity factors, index momentum, earnings reactions and market regimes.
Commodities
Gold, oil and other commodities as inflation and risk hedges.
Rates and bonds
Yield curves and interest-rate expectations that drive currencies and risk assets.
Cross-market signals
How the dollar, yields, gold and crypto move together, and when those links break.
What we research
Every project ships with code, data sources and the failed attempts too.
Price and volatility forecasting
Transformers, state-space models and classical GARCH, compared on the same walk-forward split.
On-chain analytics
Wallet flows, exchange reserves and MEV signals turned into features and tested for real predictive value.
Risk and portfolio construction
Position sizing, drawdown control and correlation regimes for volatile assets.
DeFi and market microstructure
Liquidity, slippage and AMM pricing, plus how to spot manipulated pools.
LLM agents for finance
Where language models help with research and where they confidently get it wrong.
Backtest integrity
Look-ahead bias, overfitting and survivorship checks. Every result gets audited by another member.